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AFC Eskilstuna vs Umea FF — Ettan - Norra 2019

AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Umea FF
Umea FF
11/9/2025Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 30Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna56%
×Draw22%
Umea FF23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Eskilstuna
2.02
Umea FF
1.21

AFC Eskilstuna creates 67% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 60 away

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna
1.68
Umea FF
0.83

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna
1.59
Umea FF
2.37

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par
Umea FF+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

Umea FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw
77%
AFC Eskilstuna or Umea FF
78%
Draw or Umea FF
44%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
33%
Umea FF wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
87%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
60%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
33%
Umea FF 1+ goals
70%
Umea FF 2+ goals
34%
Umea FF 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
71%
Umea FF (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

Umea FF away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.68 + Umea FF defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.02

Umea FF attack 0.83 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more
56%
level
22%
Umea FF scores more
23%

AFC Eskilstuna at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Norra: AFC Eskilstuna 1–0 Umea FF

AFC Eskilstuna beat Umea FF 1-0 in Ettan - Norra on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.