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Umeå FC vs IK brage — Superettan 2026

Umeå FC
Umeå FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
IK brage
IK brage
4/27/2025SuperettanSuperettan · Round 5Umea Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Umeå FC31%
×Draw26%
IK brage43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Umeå FC
1.15
IK brage
1.42

IK brage creates 23% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 127 away

creates per match

Umeå FC
0.87
IK brage
1.30

allows per match

Umeå FC
1.53
IK brage
1.43

finishing

Umeå FC+0.00on par
IK brage+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umeå FC ↓

IK brage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Umeå FC or draw
57%
Umeå FC or IK brage
74%
Draw or IK brage
69%

Winning margin

Umeå FC wins by 2+
12%
IK brage wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Umeå FC 1+ goals
68%
Umeå FC 2+ goals
32%
Umeå FC 3+ goals
11%
IK brage 1+ goals
76%
IK brage 2+ goals
41%
IK brage 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Umeå FC (draw refunded)
41%
IK brage (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umeå FC at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

IK brage away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.43 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umeå FC attack 0.87 + IK brage defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.15

IK brage attack 1.30 + Umeå FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Umeå FC scores more
31%
level
26%
IK brage scores more
43%

IK brage at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "IK brage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Umeå FC 0–1 IK brage

IK brage beat Umeå FC 1-0 in Superettan on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Umea Energi Arena in Umea.