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IK brage vs Umeå FC — Svenska Cupen 2019

IK brage
IK brage
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Umeå FC
Umeå FC
3/6/2021Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

IK brage52%
×Draw23%
Umeå FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IK brage
1.79
Umeå FC
1.14

IK brage creates 57% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

IK brage
1.71
Umeå FC
1.57

allows per match

IK brage
0.71
Umeå FC
1.86

finishing

IK brage+0.00on par
Umeå FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK brage ↓

Umeå FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

IK brage or draw
76%
IK brage or Umeå FC
77%
Draw or Umeå FC
48%

Winning margin

IK brage wins by 2+
29%
Umeå FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

IK brage 1+ goals
83%
IK brage 2+ goals
53%
IK brage 3+ goals
26%
Umeå FC 1+ goals
68%
Umeå FC 2+ goals
32%
Umeå FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

IK brage (draw refunded)
68%
Umeå FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK brage at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Umeå FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK brage attack 1.71 + Umeå FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.79

Umeå FC attack 1.57 + IK brage defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

IK brage scores more
52%
level
23%
Umeå FC scores more
24%

IK brage at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "IK brage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IK brage vs Umeå FC

IK brage beat Umeå FC 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Borlänge.