Umeå FC 3–0 Dalkurd FF: Result & Stats

Umeå FC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Dalkurd FF

4/10/2023

Ettan - Norra · Norra - 2Umeå Energi Arena SOL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Umeå FC43%

×Draw24%

Dalkurd FF33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Umeå FCExpected goals in this matchDalkurd FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.42

Umeå FC

1.67

Dalkurd FF

1.42

Umeå FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 30 away

1.96

creates per match

1.50

1.34

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Umeå FC

1.96

Dalkurd FF

1.50

allows per match

Umeå FC

1.34

Dalkurd FF

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Umeå FC+0.00on par

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umeå FC ↓

Dalkurd FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Umeå FC or draw

67%

Umeå FC or Dalkurd FF

76%

Draw or Dalkurd FF

57%

Winning margin

Umeå FC wins by 2+

22%

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Umeå FC 1+ goals

81%

Umeå FC 2+ goals

50%

Umeå FC 3+ goals

23%

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals

76%

Dalkurd FF 2+ goals

41%

Dalkurd FF 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Umeå FC (draw refunded)

57%

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umeå FC at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.34 · 82 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umeå FC attack 1.96 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.67

Dalkurd FF attack 1.50 + Umeå FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Umeå FC scores more

43%

level

24%

Dalkurd FF scores more

33%

Umeå FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Umeå FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff