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Dalkurd FF vs Umeå FC — Ettan - Norra 2019

Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Umeå FC
Umeå FC
6/27/2021Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 13Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dalkurd FF51%
×Draw23%
Umeå FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalkurd FF
1.82
Umeå FC
1.22

Dalkurd FF creates 49% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 82 away

creates per match

Dalkurd FF
2.13
Umeå FC
1.51

allows per match

Dalkurd FF
0.93
Umeå FC
1.51

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par
Umeå FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

Umeå FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw
74%
Dalkurd FF or Umeå FC
77%
Draw or Umeå FC
49%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
29%
Umeå FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
84%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
54%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
27%
Umeå FC 1+ goals
70%
Umeå FC 2+ goals
34%
Umeå FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
67%
Umeå FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

Umeå FC away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.51 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 2.13 + Umeå FC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.82

Umeå FC attack 1.51 + Dalkurd FF defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more
51%
level
23%
Umeå FC scores more
26%

Dalkurd FF at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dalkurd FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dalkurd FF vs Umeå FC

Dalkurd FF and Umeå FC drew 2-2 in Ettan - Norra on June 27, 2021.

The match was played at Studenternas IP in Uppsala.