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Umeå FC vs Dalkurd FF — Superettan 2018

Umeå FC
Umeå FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
8/3/2020SuperettanSuperettan · Round 10Umeå Energi Arena SOL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Umeå FC37%
×Draw27%
Dalkurd FF36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Umeå FC
1.27
Dalkurd FF
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 49 away

creates per match

Umeå FC
0.87
Dalkurd FF
0.98

allows per match

Umeå FC
1.53
Dalkurd FF
1.67

finishing

Umeå FC+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umeå FC ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Umeå FC or draw
64%
Umeå FC or Dalkurd FF
73%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
63%

Winning margin

Umeå FC wins by 2+
16%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Umeå FC 1+ goals
72%
Umeå FC 2+ goals
36%
Umeå FC 3+ goals
14%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
71%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
36%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Umeå FC (draw refunded)
51%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umeå FC at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umeå FC attack 0.87 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.27

Dalkurd FF attack 0.98 + Umeå FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Umeå FC scores more
37%
level
27%
Dalkurd FF scores more
36%

Umeå FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Umeå FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Umeå FC 1–2 Dalkurd FF

Dalkurd FF beat Umeå FC 2-1 in Superettan on August 3, 2020.

The match was played at Umeå Energi Arena SOL in Umeå.