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Umeå FC vs AFC Eskilstuna — Ettan - Norra 2019

Umeå FC
Umeå FC
Preview
11:00
AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
8/9/2026Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 16Umea Energi Arena
52%
Umeå FC
model favours
52%21%28%

Umeå FC score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
72%
over 2.5 goals
70%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Umeå FC52%
×Draw21%
AFC Eskilstuna28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Umeå FC
2.17
AFC Eskilstuna
1.55

Umeå FC creates 40% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 37 away

creates per match

Umeå FC
1.96
AFC Eskilstuna
1.76

allows per match

Umeå FC
1.34
AFC Eskilstuna
2.38

finishing

Umeå FC+0.00on par
AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umeå FC ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Umeå FC or draw
72%
Umeå FC or AFC Eskilstuna
79%
Draw or AFC Eskilstuna
48%

Winning margin

Umeå FC wins by 2+
31%
AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Umeå FC 1+ goals
89%
Umeå FC 2+ goals
64%
Umeå FC 3+ goals
36%
AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
79%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
46%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Umeå FC (draw refunded)
65%
AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umeå FC at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.34 · 82 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.76, concedes 2.38 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umeå FC attack 1.96 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.17

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.76 + Umeå FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Umeå FC scores more
52%
level
21%
AFC Eskilstuna scores more
28%

Umeå FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Umeå FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
FC
LLWDD
Eskilstuna
WDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Umeå FC vs AFC Eskilstuna — Match Preview

Umeå FC face AFC Eskilstuna on August 9, 2026 in this Ettan - Norra fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Umeå FC host AFC Eskilstuna at Umea Energi Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.