Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Umeå FC vs AFC Eskilstuna — Superettan 2018

Umeå FC
Umeå FC
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
9/27/2020SuperettanSuperettan · Round 20Umeå Energi Arena SOL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Umeå FC36%
×Draw27%
AFC Eskilstuna37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Umeå FC
1.24
AFC Eskilstuna
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 75 away

creates per match

Umeå FC
0.87
AFC Eskilstuna
1.00

allows per match

Umeå FC
1.53
AFC Eskilstuna
1.60

finishing

Umeå FC+0.00on par
AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umeå FC ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Umeå FC or draw
63%
Umeå FC or AFC Eskilstuna
73%
Draw or AFC Eskilstuna
64%

Winning margin

Umeå FC wins by 2+
15%
AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Umeå FC 1+ goals
71%
Umeå FC 2+ goals
35%
Umeå FC 3+ goals
13%
AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
72%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
36%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Umeå FC (draw refunded)
49%
AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umeå FC at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umeå FC attack 0.87 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.24

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.00 + Umeå FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Umeå FC scores more
36%
level
27%
AFC Eskilstuna scores more
37%

AFC Eskilstuna at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Umeå FC vs AFC Eskilstuna

AFC Eskilstuna beat Umeå FC 3-0 in Superettan on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Umeå Energi Arena SOL in Umeå.