AFC Eskilstuna 1–3 Umeå FC: Result & Stats

AFC Eskilstuna

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Umeå FC

6/27/2020

Superettan · Round 3Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna55%

×Draw24%

Umeå FC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC EskilstunaExpected goals in this matchUmeå FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.97

AFC Eskilstuna

1.74

Umeå FC

0.97

AFC Eskilstuna creates 79% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 30 away

1.55

creates per match

0.97

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna

1.55

Umeå FC

0.97

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna

0.97

Umeå FC

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Umeå FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

Umeå FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw

79%

AFC Eskilstuna or Umeå FC

76%

Draw or Umeå FC

45%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

31%

Umeå FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

82%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

52%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

25%

Umeå FC 1+ goals

62%

Umeå FC 2+ goals

25%

Umeå FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

73%

Umeå FC (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

Umeå FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.55 + Umeå FC defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.74

Umeå FC attack 0.97 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

55%

level

24%

Umeå FC scores more

21%

AFC Eskilstuna at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff