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Ulytau vs Taraz — 1. Division 2019

Ulytau
Ulytau
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Taraz
Taraz
Z. Moldakaraev 75', 57'
N. Anuarbekov 55'
A. Taubay 19'
E. Toybekov 37' (pen)
9/5/20241. Division1. Division · Round 23Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ulytau63%
×Draw20%
Taraz17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulytau
2.14
Taraz
0.99

Ulytau creates 116% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 48 away

creates per match

Ulytau
2.43
Taraz
1.13

allows per match

Ulytau
0.86
Taraz
1.85

finishing

Ulytau+0.00on par
Taraz+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulytau ↓

Taraz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ulytau or draw
83%
Ulytau or Taraz
80%
Draw or Taraz
37%

Winning margin

Ulytau wins by 2+
40%
Taraz wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ulytau 1+ goals
88%
Ulytau 2+ goals
63%
Ulytau 3+ goals
36%
Taraz 1+ goals
63%
Taraz 2+ goals
26%
Taraz 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ulytau (draw refunded)
79%
Taraz (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulytau at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Taraz away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.85 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulytau attack 2.43 + Taraz defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.14

Taraz attack 1.13 + Ulytau defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ulytau scores more
63%
level
20%
Taraz scores more
17%

Ulytau at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ulytau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
K. Nursultanov
19'
A. Taubay
33'
A. Ashirbek
35'
B. Rzataev
37'
E. ToybekovPenalty
39'
K. Nursultanov← S. Zhumagali
44'
Z. Moldakaraev
46'
A. Krasotin← A. Kalymbetov
46'
V. Gunchenko← N. Anuarbekov
46'
N. Orynbasar← N. Orynbasar
55'
N. Anuarbekov
57'
Z. Moldakaraev
58'
M. Zhambyl
64'
S. Kemelbek← S. Kemelbek
64'
A. Mukanbetzhanov← A. Mukanbetzhanov
67'
A. Taubay← R. Aslan
74'
R. Aslan
75'
Z. Moldakaraev
78'
M. Zhumat← M. Zhumat
78'
U. Khaytmuratov← U. Khaytmuratov
81'
Z. Moldakaraev← A. Ermekuulu
90+2'
A. Ermekuulu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Ulytau 4–1 Taraz

Ulytau beat Taraz 4-1 in 1. Division on September 5, 2024.

Goals: A. Taubay (19'), E. Toybekov (37' pen), N. Anuarbekov (55'), Z. Moldakaraev (57', 75').

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Zhezqazghan.