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Taraz vs Ulytau — 1. Division 2019

Taraz
Taraz
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ulytau
Ulytau
U. Khaytmuratov 90+1'
A. Omarbek 87'
B. Turysbek 22'
5/16/20241. Division1. Division · Round 7Ortalyq stadıon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Taraz33%
×Draw23%
Ulytau45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taraz
1.53
Ulytau
1.82

Ulytau creates 19% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 15 away

creates per match

Taraz
1.94
Ulytau
2.40

allows per match

Taraz
1.25
Ulytau
1.13

finishing

Taraz+0.00on par
Ulytau+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taraz ↓

Ulytau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Taraz or draw
55%
Taraz or Ulytau
77%
Draw or Ulytau
67%

Winning margin

Taraz wins by 2+
15%
Ulytau wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Taraz 1+ goals
78%
Taraz 2+ goals
45%
Taraz 3+ goals
20%
Ulytau 1+ goals
84%
Ulytau 2+ goals
54%
Ulytau 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Taraz (draw refunded)
42%
Ulytau (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taraz at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

Ulytau away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taraz attack 1.94 + Ulytau defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.53

Ulytau attack 2.40 + Taraz defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Taraz scores more
33%
level
23%
Ulytau scores more
45%

Ulytau at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ulytau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
B. Turysbek
46'
N. Mamirbaev← M. Chalkin
46'
D. Lesbek← D. Lesbek
60'
M. Dilmurat
66'
S. Kemelbek← S. Kemelbek
66'
A. Mukanbetzhanov← A. Mukanbetzhanov
69'
V. Gunchenko← O. Saylybaev
69'
R. Zhankhaev← R. Zhankhaev
75'
U. Khaytmuratov← U. Khaytmuratov
77'
Z. Moldakaraev← A. Omarbek
81'
E. Toybekov← N. Orynbasar
86'
A. Omarbek
86'
E. Sarsenbay← E. Sarsenbay
87'
A. Omarbek
89'
A. Erkinbek
90+1'
U. Khaytmuratov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taraz 1 – 2 Ulytau

Ulytau beat Taraz 2-1 in 1. Division on May 16, 2024.

Goals: B. Turysbek (22'), A. Omarbek (87'), U. Khaytmuratov (90+1').

The match was played at Ortalyq stadıon in Taraz.