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Ulytau vs Altay — 1. Division 2019

Ulytau
Ulytau
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Altay
Altay
S. Fluk 86'
M. Chalkin 33'
A. Seytkaliev 64'
7/4/20241. Division1. Division · Round 14Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ulytau53%
×Draw23%
Altay23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulytau
1.78
Altay
1.09

Ulytau creates 63% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 46 away

creates per match

Ulytau
2.43
Altay
1.33

allows per match

Ulytau
0.86
Altay
1.13

finishing

Ulytau+0.00on par
Altay+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulytau ↓

Altay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ulytau or draw
77%
Ulytau or Altay
77%
Draw or Altay
47%

Winning margin

Ulytau wins by 2+
30%
Altay wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ulytau 1+ goals
83%
Ulytau 2+ goals
53%
Ulytau 3+ goals
26%
Altay 1+ goals
66%
Altay 2+ goals
30%
Altay 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ulytau (draw refunded)
70%
Altay (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulytau at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Altay away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.13 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulytau attack 2.43 + Altay defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.78

Altay attack 1.33 + Ulytau defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ulytau scores more
53%
level
23%
Altay scores more
23%

Ulytau at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ulytau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
M. Chalkin
46'
M. Kovalev← M. Kovalev
57'
V. Gunchenko← V. Gunchenko
59'
A. Sapargaliyev← G. Kan
59'
B. Malikov← B. Malikov
59'
A. Zhardemov← A. Zhardemov
63'
R. Zhankhaev
64'
A. Seytkaliev
75'
Z. Moldakaraev← A. Taubay
75'
A. Krasotin← D. Kuanyshbay
83'
M. Dilmurat← M. Dilmurat
86'
S. Fluk
87'
B. Sletov← B. Sletov
90+4'
D. Slambekov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ulytau 2 – 1 Altay

Ulytau beat Altay 2-1 in 1. Division on July 4, 2024.

Goals: M. Chalkin (33'), A. Seytkaliev (64'), S. Fluk (86').

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Zhezqazghan.