Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Altay vs Ulytau — 1. Division 2019

Altay
Altay
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Ulytau
Ulytau
A. Kalymbetov 79'
K. Nursultanov 70'
V. Gunchenko 66'
Z. Moldakaraev 61'
8/22/20241. Division1. Division · Round 21Stadion Vostok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Altay32%
×Draw24%
Ulytau44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altay
1.38
Ulytau
1.65

Ulytau creates 20% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Altay
1.64
Ulytau
2.40

allows per match

Altay
0.89
Ulytau
1.13

finishing

Altay+0.00on par
Ulytau+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altay ↓

Ulytau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Altay or draw
56%
Altay or Ulytau
76%
Draw or Ulytau
68%

Winning margin

Altay wins by 2+
14%
Ulytau wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Altay 1+ goals
75%
Altay 2+ goals
40%
Altay 3+ goals
16%
Ulytau 1+ goals
81%
Ulytau 2+ goals
49%
Ulytau 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Altay (draw refunded)
42%
Ulytau (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altay at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Ulytau away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altay attack 1.64 + Ulytau defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

Ulytau attack 2.40 + Altay defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Altay scores more
32%
level
24%
Ulytau scores more
44%

Ulytau at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ulytau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
D. Slambekov
56'
A. Teterin
61'
Z. Moldakaraev
64'
A. Sapargaliyev← A. Seytkaliev
64'
D. Dastan← D. Dastan
65'
A. Dzhanuzakov
66'
Z. MoldakaraevMissed penalty
66'
V. Gunchenko
67'
I. Lapshin← I. Lapshin
70'
K. Nursultanov
72'
S. Khizhnichenko← A. Metallov
72'
N. Pivkin← A. Sapargaliev
74'
A. Erden← A. Erden
74'
A. Ermekuulu← A. Ermekuulu
79'
A. Kalymbetov
82'
B. Rzataev← S. Zhumagali
82'
K. Nursultanov← R. Aslan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Altay vs Ulytau

Ulytau beat Altay 4-0 in 1. Division on August 22, 2024.

Goals: Z. Moldakaraev (61'), V. Gunchenko (66'), K. Nursultanov (70'), A. Kalymbetov (79').

The match was played at Stadion Vostok in Ust-Kamenogorsk.