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Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Ulsan Hyundai FC
Ulsan Hyundai FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
4/21/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3Tan Sri Dato' Hj Hassan Yunos Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC63%
×Draw23%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.72
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
0.65

Ulsan Hyundai FC creates 165% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.85
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
0.47

allows per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC
0.82
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.59

finishing

Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulsan Hyundai FC ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ulsan Hyundai FC or draw
86%
Ulsan Hyundai FC or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
77%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
37%

Winning margin

Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+
36%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals
82%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals
51%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals
25%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
48%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
14%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)
82%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulsan Hyundai FC at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.85 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.72

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.47 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more
63%
level
23%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
14%

Ulsan Hyundai FC at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ulsan Hyundai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ulsan Hyundai FC 3 – 0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3-0 in AFC Champions League on April 21, 2022.

The match was played at Tan Sri Dato' Hj Hassan Yunos Stadium in Johor Bahru.