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Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Ulsan Hyundai FC
4/24/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4Tan Sri Dato' Hj Hassan Yunos Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC31%
×Draw23%
Ulsan Hyundai FC46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.38
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.74

Ulsan Hyundai FC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 31 away

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.28
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.48

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.00
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.48

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par
Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Ulsan Hyundai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw
54%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC
77%
Draw or Ulsan Hyundai FC
69%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
14%
Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
75%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
40%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
16%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals
82%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals
52%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
40%
Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 1.28, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.28 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.38

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.48 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
31%
level
23%
Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more
46%

Ulsan Hyundai FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ulsan Hyundai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0 – 5 Ulsan Hyundai FC

Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 5-0 in AFC Champions League on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Tan Sri Dato' Hj Hassan Yunos Stadium in Johor Bahru.