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Ulsan Citizen vs Pocheon — K3 League 2026

Ulsan Citizen
Ulsan Citizen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pocheon
Pocheon
5/30/2026K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 13Ulsan Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Ulsan Citizen31%
×Draw28%
Pocheon41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulsan Citizen
1.05
Pocheon
1.26

Pocheon creates 20% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 55 away

creates per match

Ulsan Citizen
0.96
Pocheon
1.40

allows per match

Ulsan Citizen
1.13
Pocheon
1.15

finishing

Ulsan Citizen+0.00on par
Pocheon+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulsan Citizen ↓

Pocheon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ulsan Citizen or draw
59%
Ulsan Citizen or Pocheon
72%
Draw or Pocheon
69%

Winning margin

Ulsan Citizen wins by 2+
12%
Pocheon wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ulsan Citizen 1+ goals
65%
Ulsan Citizen 2+ goals
28%
Ulsan Citizen 3+ goals
9%
Pocheon 1+ goals
72%
Pocheon 2+ goals
36%
Pocheon 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ulsan Citizen (draw refunded)
43%
Pocheon (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulsan Citizen at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.13 · 71 matches

Pocheon away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.15 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulsan Citizen attack 0.96 + Pocheon defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.05

Pocheon attack 1.40 + Ulsan Citizen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ulsan Citizen scores more
31%
level
28%
Pocheon scores more
41%

Pocheon at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pocheon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ulsan Citizen vs Pocheon

Pocheon beat Ulsan Citizen 1-0 in K3 League on May 30, 2026.

The match was played at Ulsan Complex Stadium in Ulsan.