Pocheon 0–0 Ulsan Citizen: Result & Stats

Pocheon

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ulsan Citizen

10/4/2025

K3 League · Round 27Pocheon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Pocheon42%

×Draw28%

Ulsan Citizen30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PocheonExpected goals in this matchUlsan Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.06

Pocheon

1.31

Ulsan Citizen

1.06

Pocheon creates 24% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 68 away

1.36

creates per match

1.06

1.07

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Pocheon

1.36

Ulsan Citizen

1.06

allows per match

Pocheon

1.07

Ulsan Citizen

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pocheon+0.00on par

Ulsan Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pocheon ↓

Ulsan Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Pocheon or draw

70%

Pocheon or Ulsan Citizen

72%

Draw or Ulsan Citizen

58%

Winning margin

Pocheon wins by 2+

19%

Ulsan Citizen wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pocheon 1+ goals

73%

Pocheon 2+ goals

38%

Pocheon 3+ goals

14%

Ulsan Citizen 1+ goals

65%

Ulsan Citizen 2+ goals

29%

Ulsan Citizen 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Pocheon (draw refunded)

58%

Ulsan Citizen (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pocheon at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 56 matches

Ulsan Citizen away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pocheon attack 1.36 + Ulsan Citizen defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Ulsan Citizen attack 1.06 + Pocheon defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pocheon scores more

42%

level

28%

Ulsan Citizen scores more

30%

Pocheon at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pocheon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff