Ulpiana 1–1 Malisheva: Result & Stats | Superliga

Ulpiana

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Malisheva

2/19/2022

Superliga · Round 20Stadiumi Sami Kelmendi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ulpiana26%

×Draw24%

Malisheva50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UlpianaExpected goals in this matchMalisheva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.69

Ulpiana

1.14

Malisheva

1.69

Malisheva creates 48% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 91 away

1.00

creates per match

1.31

2.06

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Ulpiana

1.00

Malisheva

1.31

allows per match

Ulpiana

2.06

Malisheva

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulpiana+0.00on par

Malisheva+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulpiana ↓

Malisheva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ulpiana or draw

50%

Ulpiana or Malisheva

76%

Draw or Malisheva

74%

Winning margin

Ulpiana wins by 2+

10%

Malisheva wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Ulpiana 1+ goals

68%

Ulpiana 2+ goals

32%

Ulpiana 3+ goals

11%

Malisheva 1+ goals

82%

Malisheva 2+ goals

50%

Malisheva 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Ulpiana (draw refunded)

34%

Malisheva (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulpiana at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

Malisheva away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulpiana attack 1.00 + Malisheva defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Malisheva attack 1.31 + Ulpiana defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ulpiana scores more

26%

level

24%

Malisheva scores more

50%

Malisheva at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Malisheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff