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Malisheva vs Ulpiana — Superliga 2019

Malisheva
Malisheva
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ulpiana
Ulpiana
4/16/2022SuperligaSuperliga · Round 29Stadiumi Liman Gegaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Malisheva53%
×Draw24%
Ulpiana23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malisheva
1.75
Ulpiana
1.08

Malisheva creates 62% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 18 away

creates per match

Malisheva
1.57
Ulpiana
0.89

allows per match

Malisheva
1.27
Ulpiana
1.94

finishing

Malisheva+0.00on par
Ulpiana+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malisheva ↓

Ulpiana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Malisheva or draw
77%
Malisheva or Ulpiana
76%
Draw or Ulpiana
47%

Winning margin

Malisheva wins by 2+
29%
Ulpiana wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Malisheva 1+ goals
83%
Malisheva 2+ goals
52%
Malisheva 3+ goals
25%
Ulpiana 1+ goals
66%
Ulpiana 2+ goals
29%
Ulpiana 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Malisheva (draw refunded)
69%
Ulpiana (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malisheva at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.27 · 90 matches

Ulpiana away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malisheva attack 1.57 + Ulpiana defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.75

Ulpiana attack 0.89 + Malisheva defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Malisheva scores more
53%
level
24%
Ulpiana scores more
23%

Malisheva at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Malisheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malisheva vs Ulpiana

Malisheva beat Ulpiana 1-0 in Superliga on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Liman Gegaj in Malishevë.