Ulpiana 3–1 Drenica Skënderaj: Result & Stats

Ulpiana

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Drenica Skënderaj

2/27/2022

Superliga · Round 22Stadiumi Sami Kelmendi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ulpiana33%

×Draw25%

Drenica Skënderaj42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UlpianaExpected goals in this matchDrenica Skënderaj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.48

Ulpiana

1.29

Drenica Skënderaj

1.48

Drenica Skënderaj creates 15% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 88 away

1.00

creates per match

0.90

2.06

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Ulpiana

1.00

Drenica Skënderaj

0.90

allows per match

Ulpiana

2.06

Drenica Skënderaj

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulpiana+0.00on par

Drenica Skënderaj+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulpiana ↓

Drenica Skënderaj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ulpiana or draw

58%

Ulpiana or Drenica Skënderaj

75%

Draw or Drenica Skënderaj

67%

Winning margin

Ulpiana wins by 2+

14%

Drenica Skënderaj wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Ulpiana 1+ goals

72%

Ulpiana 2+ goals

37%

Ulpiana 3+ goals

14%

Drenica Skënderaj 1+ goals

77%

Drenica Skënderaj 2+ goals

43%

Drenica Skënderaj 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Ulpiana (draw refunded)

44%

Drenica Skënderaj (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulpiana at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

Drenica Skënderaj away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.59 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulpiana attack 1.00 + Drenica Skënderaj defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Drenica Skënderaj attack 0.90 + Ulpiana defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ulpiana scores more

33%

level

25%

Drenica Skënderaj scores more

42%

Drenica Skënderaj at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Drenica Skënderaj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff