Drenica Skënderaj 4–0 Ulpiana: Result & Stats | Cup

Drenica Skënderaj

FT

4 – 0

Ulpiana

2/9/2021

Cup · 8th FinalsStadiumi Rexhep Rexhepi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Drenica Skënderaj78%

×Draw16%

Ulpiana7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Drenica SkënderajExpected goals in this matchUlpiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

0.50

Drenica Skënderaj

2.27

Ulpiana

0.50

Drenica Skënderaj creates 354% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

1.88

creates per match

0.00

1.00

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Drenica Skënderaj

1.88

Ulpiana

0.00

allows per match

Drenica Skënderaj

1.00

Ulpiana

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Drenica Skënderaj+0.00on par

Ulpiana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drenica Skënderaj ↓

Ulpiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Drenica Skënderaj or draw

93%

Drenica Skënderaj or Ulpiana

84%

Draw or Ulpiana

22%

Winning margin

Drenica Skënderaj wins by 2+

53%

Ulpiana wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Drenica Skënderaj 1+ goals

90%

Drenica Skënderaj 2+ goals

66%

Drenica Skënderaj 3+ goals

39%

Ulpiana 1+ goals

39%

Ulpiana 2+ goals

9%

Ulpiana 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Drenica Skënderaj (draw refunded)

92%

Ulpiana (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drenica Skënderaj at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Ulpiana away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drenica Skënderaj attack 1.88 + Ulpiana defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.27

Ulpiana attack 0.00 + Drenica Skënderaj defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Drenica Skënderaj scores more

78%

level

16%

Ulpiana scores more

7%

Drenica Skënderaj at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Drenica Skënderaj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff