Ulm U19 4–3 Sandhausen U19: Result & Stats

Ulm U19

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Sandhausen U19

A. Degraf 56', 12'

L. Mahle 37'

S. Wetter 15'

Y. Outman 79'

S. Zulum 70'

V. Siontis 5'

2/1/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 1Kunstrasenplatz Donau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ulm U1941%

×Draw21%

Sandhausen U1939%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ulm U19Expected goals in this matchSandhausen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

2.00

Ulm U19

2.06

Sandhausen U19

2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 38 away

1.67

creates per match

1.55

2.44

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Ulm U19

1.67

Sandhausen U19

1.55

allows per match

Ulm U19

2.44

Sandhausen U19

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulm U19+0.00on par

Sandhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulm U19 ↓

Sandhausen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Ulm U19 or draw

61%

Ulm U19 or Sandhausen U19

79%

Draw or Sandhausen U19

59%

Winning margin

Ulm U19 wins by 2+

23%

Sandhausen U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Ulm U19 1+ goals

87%

Ulm U19 2+ goals

61%

Ulm U19 3+ goals

34%

Sandhausen U19 1+ goals

86%

Sandhausen U19 2+ goals

59%

Sandhausen U19 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Ulm U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Sandhausen U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulm U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.44 · 45 matches

Sandhausen U19 away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulm U19 attack 1.67 + Sandhausen U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.06

Sandhausen U19 attack 1.55 + Ulm U19 defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ulm U19 scores more

41%

level

21%

Sandhausen U19 scores more

39%

Ulm U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ulm U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

12'

15'

37'

47'

O. Scheiermann← L. Zikora

56'

A. Degraf

62'

A. Guiddir← D. Maraj

62'

K. Gegg← A. Shala

70'

S. Zulum

72'

J. Aschmann← I. El Hadj-Safi

77'

J. Reichle← N. Hill

79'

Y. Outman

86'

A. Belachemi← A. Malaj

86'

D. Villiers← V. Siontis

Ulm

Sandhausen

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

⚽

▼

Manager: R. Lechleiter

72'▲J. Aschmann←▼I. El Hadj-Safi

77'▲J. Reichle←▼N. Hill

Ulm U19 substitutes

AschmannReichleBelecAltaySherifiKögelErlenbaur

Manager: I. Erceg

47'▲O. Scheiermann←▼L. Zikora

62'▲A. Guiddir←▼D. Maraj

62'▲K. Gegg←▼A. Shala

86'▲A. Belachemi←▼A. Malaj

86'▲D. Villiers←▼V. Siontis

Sandhausen U19 substitutes

ScheiermannGuiddirGeggBelachemiVilliersLoosSasso

U19 Bundesliga: Ulm U19 4–3 Sandhausen U19

Ulm U19 beat Sandhausen U19 4-3 in U19 Bundesliga on February 1, 2025.

Goals: V. Siontis (5'), A. Degraf (12', 56'), S. Wetter (15'), L. Mahle (37'), S. Zulum (70'), Y. Outman (79').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Donau in Ulm.

Ulm U19 vs Sandhausen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Ulm U19 4–3 Sandhausen U19