Ulm U19 0–3 Ingolstadt U19: Result & Stats

Ulm U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Ingolstadt U19

L. Ladenburger 50' (OG)

B. Berk 31'

F. Hapi 10'

11/23/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 12Kunstrasenplatz Donau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ulm U1929%

×Draw20%

Ingolstadt U1951%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ulm U19Expected goals in this matchIngolstadt U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

2.27

Ulm U19

1.69

Ingolstadt U19

2.27

Ingolstadt U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 73 away

1.67

creates per match

2.10

2.44

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Ulm U19

1.67

Ingolstadt U19

2.10

allows per match

Ulm U19

2.44

Ingolstadt U19

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulm U19+0.00on par

Ingolstadt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulm U19 ↓

Ingolstadt U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Ulm U19 or draw

49%

Ulm U19 or Ingolstadt U19

80%

Draw or Ingolstadt U19

71%

Winning margin

Ulm U19 wins by 2+

14%

Ingolstadt U19 wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Ulm U19 1+ goals

82%

Ulm U19 2+ goals

50%

Ulm U19 3+ goals

24%

Ingolstadt U19 1+ goals

90%

Ingolstadt U19 2+ goals

66%

Ingolstadt U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Ulm U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Ingolstadt U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulm U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.44 · 45 matches

Ingolstadt U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.71 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulm U19 attack 1.67 + Ingolstadt U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.69

Ingolstadt U19 attack 2.10 + Ulm U19 defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ulm U19 scores more

29%

level

20%

Ingolstadt U19 scores more

51%

Ingolstadt U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ingolstadt U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

F. Hapi

31'

B. Berk

40'

D. Belec← E. Altay

46'

T. Hengmith← B. Calemba

50'

L. LadenburgerOwn goal

56'

T. Klimek← S. Wetter

62'

D. Ndukwu← T. Keller

78'

A. Streck← A. Nnokoson

78'

M. Wagner← L. Midzaiti

84'

M. Ruoß← N. Kleiser

84'

O. Sherifi← B. Ehe

84'

T. Kögel← J. Totschnig

84'

Y. Polat← N. Hill

90+4'

N. Che← K. Michelbach

Ulm

Ingolstadt

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🥅

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Manager: R. Lechleiter

40'▲D. Belec←▼E. Altay

56'▲T. Klimek←▼S. Wetter

84'▲M. Ruoß←▼N. Kleiser

84'▲O. Sherifi←▼B. Ehe

84'▲T. Kögel←▼J. Totschnig

84'▲Y. Polat←▼N. Hill

Ulm U19 substitutes

BelecKlimekRuoßSherifiKögelPolatReichle

Manager: W. Bauer

46'▲T. Hengmith←▼B. Calemba

62'▲D. Ndukwu←▼T. Keller

78'▲A. Streck←▼A. Nnokoson

78'▲M. Wagner←▼L. Midzaiti

90+4'▲N. Che←▼K. Michelbach

Ingolstadt U19 substitutes

HengmithNdukwuStreckWagnerCheAtchoffoStjepanovic