Ingolstadt U19 1–0 Ulm U19: Result & Stats

Ingolstadt U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ulm U19

J. Hawkins 22'

10/26/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 9BZA Süd-Ost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ingolstadt U1962%

×Draw19%

Ulm U1919%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ingolstadt U19Expected goals in this matchUlm U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.32

Ingolstadt U19

2.46

Ulm U19

1.32

Ingolstadt U19 creates 86% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 45 away

2.01

creates per match

1.24

1.41

allows per match

2.91

creates per match

Ingolstadt U19

2.01

Ulm U19

1.24

allows per match

Ingolstadt U19

1.41

Ulm U19

2.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ingolstadt U19+0.00on par

Ulm U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt U19 ↓

Ulm U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Ingolstadt U19 or draw

81%

Ingolstadt U19 or Ulm U19

81%

Draw or Ulm U19

38%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt U19 wins by 2+

40%

Ulm U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ingolstadt U19 1+ goals

91%

Ingolstadt U19 2+ goals

70%

Ingolstadt U19 3+ goals

44%

Ulm U19 1+ goals

73%

Ulm U19 2+ goals

38%

Ulm U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Ulm U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt U19 at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.41 · 73 matches

Ulm U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt U19 attack 2.01 + Ulm U19 defence 2.91 → ÷2 → 2.46

Ulm U19 attack 1.24 + Ingolstadt U19 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ingolstadt U19 scores more

62%

level

19%

Ulm U19 scores more

19%

Ingolstadt U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ingolstadt U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

J. Hawkins

57'

A. Latifovic← M. Mignemi

63'

T. Schwarzmeier← J. Hawkins

69'

H. Höfner← D. Erten

72'

L. Leger← M. Petrović

75'

F. Benedix← J. Butler

80'

J. Peter← S. Ilić

82'

G. Zirngast← M. Röhl

90+1'

J. Fiedler← F. Meikis

Ingolstadt

Ulm

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Hawkins

▼

Meikis

Manager: R. Pätzold

63'▲T. Schwarzmeier←▼J. Hawkins

75'▲F. Benedix←▼J. Butler

82'▲G. Zirngast←▼M. Röhl

90+1'▲J. Fiedler←▼F. Meikis

Ingolstadt U19 substitutes

SchwarzmeierBenedixZirngastFiedlerBrandlTrslicŞahin

Manager: T. Lemke

57'▲A. Latifovic←▼M. Mignemi

69'▲H. Höfner←▼D. Erten

72'▲L. Leger←▼M. Petrović

80'▲J. Peter←▼S. Ilić

Ulm U19 substitutes

LatifovicHöfnerLegerPeterHafnerStraubBayer

Match Recap: Ingolstadt U19 vs Ulm U19

Ingolstadt U19 beat Ulm U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 26, 2019.

Goals: J. Hawkins (22').

The match was played at BZA Süd-Ost in Ingolstadt.

Ingolstadt U19 vs Ulm U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ingolstadt U19 vs Ulm U19