Ulm U19 1–2 Heidenheim U19: Result & Stats

Ulm U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Heidenheim U19

G. Portella 20'

G. Mollo 88'

J. Stark 77'

2/16/2020

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 17Nebenplatz Stadion bei H-L-P

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ulm U1932%

×Draw21%

Heidenheim U1947%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ulm U19Expected goals in this matchHeidenheim U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

2.04

Ulm U19

1.66

Heidenheim U19

2.04

Heidenheim U19 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 71 away

1.74

creates per match

1.68

2.41

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Ulm U19

1.74

Heidenheim U19

1.68

allows per match

Ulm U19

2.41

Heidenheim U19

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulm U19+0.00on par

Heidenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulm U19 ↓

Heidenheim U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Ulm U19 or draw

53%

Ulm U19 or Heidenheim U19

79%

Draw or Heidenheim U19

68%

Winning margin

Ulm U19 wins by 2+

15%

Heidenheim U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Ulm U19 1+ goals

81%

Ulm U19 2+ goals

49%

Ulm U19 3+ goals

23%

Heidenheim U19 1+ goals

87%

Heidenheim U19 2+ goals

60%

Heidenheim U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Ulm U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Heidenheim U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulm U19 at home — creates 1.74, concedes 2.41 · 46 matches

Heidenheim U19 away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.58 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulm U19 attack 1.74 + Heidenheim U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.66

Heidenheim U19 attack 1.68 + Ulm U19 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ulm U19 scores more

32%

level

21%

Heidenheim U19 scores more

47%

Heidenheim U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Heidenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

G. Portella

55'

L. Straub← D. Erten

55'

R. Scarcelli← L. Piljek

65'

D. Perosevic← O. Sijarić

68'

M. Gianni← D. Kleber

75'

M. Fofanah← J. Lansche

77'

J. Stark

82'

M. Mignemi← V. Hafner

88'

G. Mollo

89'

L. Steinbrenner← M. Gueli

90+3'

G. Falcone← G. Mollo

Ulm

Heidenheim

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: T. Lemke

55'▲L. Straub←▼D. Erten

68'▲M. Gianni←▼D. Kleber

75'▲M. Fofanah←▼J. Lansche

82'▲M. Mignemi←▼V. Hafner

Ulm U19 substitutes

StraubGianniFofanahMignemiHafnerHöfnerBayer

Manager: J. Bauer

55'▲R. Scarcelli←▼L. Piljek

65'▲D. Perosevic←▼O. Sijarić

89'▲L. Steinbrenner←▼M. Gueli

90+3'▲G. Falcone←▼G. Mollo

Heidenheim U19 substitutes

ScarcelliPerosevicSteinbrennerFalconeIdjakovićZaherHauser