Heidenheim U19 3–1 Ulm U19: Result & Stats

Heidenheim U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ulm U19

10/24/2020

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 4Trainingsgelände an der Voith-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Heidenheim U1957%

×Draw19%

Ulm U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heidenheim U19Expected goals in this matchUlm U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

1.52

Heidenheim U19

2.41

Ulm U19

1.52

Heidenheim U19 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 45 away

1.91

creates per match

1.24

1.79

allows per match

2.91

creates per match

Heidenheim U19

1.91

Ulm U19

1.24

allows per match

Heidenheim U19

1.79

Ulm U19

2.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heidenheim U19+0.00on par

Ulm U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heidenheim U19 ↓

Ulm U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Heidenheim U19 or draw

76%

Heidenheim U19 or Ulm U19

81%

Draw or Ulm U19

43%

Winning margin

Heidenheim U19 wins by 2+

36%

Ulm U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Heidenheim U19 1+ goals

91%

Heidenheim U19 2+ goals

69%

Heidenheim U19 3+ goals

43%

Ulm U19 1+ goals

78%

Ulm U19 2+ goals

45%

Ulm U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Heidenheim U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Ulm U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heidenheim U19 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.79 · 68 matches

Ulm U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heidenheim U19 attack 1.91 + Ulm U19 defence 2.91 → ÷2 → 2.41

Ulm U19 attack 1.24 + Heidenheim U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Heidenheim U19 scores more

57%

level

19%

Ulm U19 scores more

24%

Heidenheim U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Heidenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff