Ulm U19 1–4 Greuther Fürth U19: Result & Stats

Ulm U19

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Greuther Fürth U19

N. Sinik 82'

J. Hendricks 90+1'

C. Meister 71'

L. Kuschka 27'

N. Grimbs 7'

11/20/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 10Donaustadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ulm U1940%

×Draw21%

Greuther Fürth U1940%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ulm U19Expected goals in this matchGreuther Fürth U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

Ulm U19

1.99

Greuther Fürth U19

1.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 67 away

1.67

creates per match

1.54

2.44

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Ulm U19

1.67

Greuther Fürth U19

1.54

allows per match

Ulm U19

2.44

Greuther Fürth U19

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulm U19+0.00on par

Greuther Fürth U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulm U19 ↓

Greuther Fürth U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Ulm U19 or draw

60%

Ulm U19 or Greuther Fürth U19

79%

Draw or Greuther Fürth U19

60%

Winning margin

Ulm U19 wins by 2+

21%

Greuther Fürth U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Ulm U19 1+ goals

86%

Ulm U19 2+ goals

59%

Ulm U19 3+ goals

32%

Greuther Fürth U19 1+ goals

86%

Greuther Fürth U19 2+ goals

59%

Greuther Fürth U19 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Ulm U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Greuther Fürth U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulm U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.44 · 45 matches

Greuther Fürth U19 away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.31 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulm U19 attack 1.67 + Greuther Fürth U19 defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.99

Greuther Fürth U19 attack 1.54 + Ulm U19 defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ulm U19 scores more

40%

level

21%

Greuther Fürth U19 scores more

40%

Ulm U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ulm U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

N. Grimbs

27'

L. Kuschka

57'

G. Agbodemegbe← B. Dikmen

66'

J. Schmid← F. Paul

68'

J. Hendricks← M. Hirschmann

71'

76'

78'

78'

82'

85'

90+1'

Ulm

Greuther

Kaymakci

Mrozek

Bodem

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Gmünder

57'▲G. Agbodemegbe←▼B. Dikmen

66'▲J. Schmid←▼F. Paul

78'▲M. Fofanah←▼M. Mahle

78'▲S. Neubrand←▼M. Dick

Ulm U19 substitutes

AgbodemegbeSchmidFofanahNeubrandHaißFennellAnnabring

Manager: M. Ried

68'▲J. Hendricks←▼M. Hirschmann

76'▲D. Funk←▼C. Meister

85'▲N. Höhn←▼M. Fries

Greuther Fürth U19 substitutes

HendricksFunkHöhnSimonBöhnkeZimmermann

Match Recap: Ulm U19 vs Greuther Fürth U19

Greuther Fürth U19 beat Ulm U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on November 20, 2021.

Goals: N. Grimbs (7'), L. Kuschka (27'), C. Meister (71'), N. Sinik (82'), J. Hendricks (90+1').

The match was played at Donaustadion in Ulm.

Ulm U19 vs Greuther Fürth U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ulm U19 vs Greuther Fürth U19