Greuther Fürth U19 2–2 Ulm U19: Result & Stats

Greuther Fürth U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ulm U19

V. Miftaraj 89'

M. Löblein 13'

L. Fidalgo 72'

R. Elongo-Yombo 24' (pen)

9/28/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 7Charly-Mai-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Greuther Fürth U1951%

×Draw21%

Ulm U1929%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greuther Fürth U19Expected goals in this matchUlm U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.61

Greuther Fürth U19

2.18

Ulm U19

1.61

Greuther Fürth U19 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 45 away

1.45

creates per match

1.24

1.98

allows per match

2.91

creates per match

Greuther Fürth U19

1.45

Ulm U19

1.24

allows per match

Greuther Fürth U19

1.98

Ulm U19

2.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greuther Fürth U19+0.00on par

Ulm U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greuther Fürth U19 ↓

Ulm U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Greuther Fürth U19 or draw

71%

Greuther Fürth U19 or Ulm U19

79%

Draw or Ulm U19

49%

Winning margin

Greuther Fürth U19 wins by 2+

30%

Ulm U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Greuther Fürth U19 1+ goals

89%

Greuther Fürth U19 2+ goals

64%

Greuther Fürth U19 3+ goals

37%

Ulm U19 1+ goals

80%

Ulm U19 2+ goals

48%

Ulm U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Greuther Fürth U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Ulm U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greuther Fürth U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.98 · 65 matches

Ulm U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greuther Fürth U19 attack 1.45 + Ulm U19 defence 2.91 → ÷2 → 2.18

Ulm U19 attack 1.24 + Greuther Fürth U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Greuther Fürth U19 scores more

51%

level

21%

Ulm U19 scores more

29%

Greuther Fürth U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Greuther Fürth U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

M. Löblein

24'

R. Elongo-YomboPenalty

46'

J. Ojanen← M. Bachmann

46'

N. Schories← J. Dorn

48'

L. Straub← J. Lansche

63'

63'

72'

73'

76'

85'

89'

Greuther

Ulm

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: M. Ried

46'▲J. Ojanen←▼M. Bachmann

46'▲N. Schories←▼J. Dorn

63'▲C. Dierke←▼W. Kamm

76'▲D. Oral←▼N. Oppelt

Greuther Fürth U19 substitutes

OjanenSchoriesDierkeOralPfabKöstlerTaher

Manager: T. Lemke

48'▲L. Straub←▼J. Lansche

63'▲N. Koch←▼M. Mignemi

73'▲D. Kleber←▼T. Baier

85'▲S. Ilić←▼V. Hafner

Ulm U19 substitutes

StraubKochKleberIlićHafnerErtenLeger

U19 Bundesliga: Greuther Fürth U19 2–2 Ulm U19

Greuther Fürth U19 and Ulm U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on September 28, 2019.

Goals: M. Löblein (13'), R. Elongo-Yombo (24' pen), L. Fidalgo (72'), V. Miftaraj (89').

The match was played at Charly-Mai-Sportanlage in Fürth.

Greuther Fürth U19 vs Ulm U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Greuther Fürth U19 2–2 Ulm U19