Ulm U19 0–2 Darmstadt 98 U19: Result & Stats

Ulm U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Darmstadt 98 U19

M. Feldmann 54' (pen)

T. Streller 31' (pen)

4/20/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 18Nebenplatz Stadion bei H-L-P

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ulm U1939%

×Draw21%

Darmstadt 98 U1940%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ulm U19Expected goals in this matchDarmstadt 98 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

2.00

Ulm U19

1.96

Darmstadt 98 U19

2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 48 away

1.67

creates per match

1.56

2.44

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Ulm U19

1.67

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.56

allows per match

Ulm U19

2.44

Darmstadt 98 U19

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulm U19+0.00on par

Darmstadt 98 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulm U19 ↓

Darmstadt 98 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Ulm U19 or draw

60%

Ulm U19 or Darmstadt 98 U19

79%

Draw or Darmstadt 98 U19

61%

Winning margin

Ulm U19 wins by 2+

21%

Darmstadt 98 U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Ulm U19 1+ goals

86%

Ulm U19 2+ goals

58%

Ulm U19 3+ goals

31%

Darmstadt 98 U19 1+ goals

86%

Darmstadt 98 U19 2+ goals

59%

Darmstadt 98 U19 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Ulm U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Darmstadt 98 U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulm U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.44 · 45 matches

Darmstadt 98 U19 away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulm U19 attack 1.67 + Darmstadt 98 U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.96

Darmstadt 98 U19 attack 1.56 + Ulm U19 defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ulm U19 scores more

39%

level

21%

Darmstadt 98 U19 scores more

40%

Darmstadt 98 U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Darmstadt 98 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

T. StrellerPenalty

54'

M. FeldmannPenalty

68'

N. Dubroja← D. Čeko

86'

J. Taglang← M. Fofanah

86'

L. Kaiser← M. Feldmann

88'

M. Borger← F. Torsiello

90+3'

D. Konstantinov← J. Sesay

90'

F. Koch← A. Makatounakis

Ulm

Darmstadt

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Gmünder

68'▲N. Dubroja←▼D. Čeko

86'▲J. Taglang←▼M. Fofanah

Ulm U19 substitutes

DubrojaTaglangEsch

Manager: G. Leopold

86'▲L. Kaiser←▼M. Feldmann

88'▲M. Borger←▼F. Torsiello

90+3'▲D. Konstantinov←▼J. Sesay

90'▲F. Koch←▼A. Makatounakis

Darmstadt 98 U19 substitutes

KaiserBorgerKonstantinovKochTochPhlepsenVrban