Darmstadt 98 U19 4–1 Ulm U19: Result & Stats

Darmstadt 98 U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Ulm U19

J. Mahn 90'

G. Hetemaj 55'

K. Kunstmann 23'

M. Herbst 15'

E. Altay 66'

2/9/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 2Kunstrasenplatz Ziegelbusch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Darmstadt 98 U1959%

×Draw20%

Ulm U1922%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Darmstadt 98 U19Expected goals in this matchUlm U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

1.36

Darmstadt 98 U19

2.32

Ulm U19

1.36

Darmstadt 98 U19 creates 71% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 45 away

1.73

creates per match

1.24

1.49

allows per match

2.91

creates per match

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.73

Ulm U19

1.24

allows per match

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.49

Ulm U19

2.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Darmstadt 98 U19+0.00on par

Ulm U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darmstadt 98 U19 ↓

Ulm U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Darmstadt 98 U19 or draw

78%

Darmstadt 98 U19 or Ulm U19

80%

Draw or Ulm U19

41%

Winning margin

Darmstadt 98 U19 wins by 2+

37%

Ulm U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Darmstadt 98 U19 1+ goals

90%

Darmstadt 98 U19 2+ goals

67%

Darmstadt 98 U19 3+ goals

40%

Ulm U19 1+ goals

74%

Ulm U19 2+ goals

39%

Ulm U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Darmstadt 98 U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Ulm U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darmstadt 98 U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches

Ulm U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darmstadt 98 U19 attack 1.73 + Ulm U19 defence 2.91 → ÷2 → 2.32

Ulm U19 attack 1.24 + Darmstadt 98 U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Darmstadt 98 U19 scores more

59%

level

20%

Ulm U19 scores more

22%

Darmstadt 98 U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Darmstadt 98 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

23'

46'

46'

46'

H. Höcker← J. Reichle

55'

G. Hetemaj

61'

J. Mahn← T. Steineck

61'

J. Volkmann← J. Buchberger

66'

E. Altay

70'

A. Brkić← A. Cacic

70'

E. Smailji← M. Herbst

85'

L. Erhart← J. Totschnig

86'

L. Schleusing← A. Brkić

86'

S. Kalberlah← K. Kunstmann

89'

L. Fernandez← T. Klimek

90'

J. Mahn

Darmstadt

Ulm

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Herbst

Manager: P. Kurt

61'▲J. Mahn←▼T. Steineck

61'▲J. Volkmann←▼J. Buchberger

70'▲A. Brkić←▼A. Cacic

70'▲E. Smailji←▼M. Herbst

86'▲L. Schleusing←▼A. Brkić

86'▲S. Kalberlah←▼K. Kunstmann

Darmstadt 98 U19 substitutes

MahnVolkmannBrkićSmailjiSchleusingKalberlahAumann

Manager: R. Lechleiter

46'▲D. Belec←▼N. Kleiser

46'▲E. Altay←▼T. Kögel

46'▲H. Höcker←▼J. Reichle

85'▲L. Erhart←▼J. Totschnig

89'▲L. Fernandez←▼T. Klimek

Ulm U19 substitutes

BelecAltayHöckerErhartFernandezMahle

Match Recap: Darmstadt 98 U19 vs Ulm U19

Darmstadt 98 U19 beat Ulm U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 9, 2025.

Goals: M. Herbst (15'), K. Kunstmann (23'), G. Hetemaj (55'), E. Altay (66'), J. Mahn (90').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Ziegelbusch in Darmstadt.

Darmstadt 98 U19 vs Ulm U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Darmstadt 98 U19 vs Ulm U19