Ullern 5–1 Skeid II: Result & Stats

Ullern

FT

5 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Skeid II

S. Rorstad 69'

B. Evensen 45+3', 45+1'

V. Holsaether 10'

J. Aarenes 7'

D. Lunde 72'

8/13/2024

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 16Ullern kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ullern59%

×Draw17%

Skeid II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UllernExpected goals in this matchSkeid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

1.93

Ullern

3.00

Skeid II

1.93

Ullern creates 55% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.38

creates per match

1.85

2.00

allows per match

3.62

creates per match

Ullern

2.38

Skeid II

1.85

allows per match

Ullern

2.00

Skeid II

3.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ullern+0.00on par

Skeid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ullern ↓

Skeid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Ullern or draw

76%

Ullern or Skeid II

83%

Draw or Skeid II

41%

Winning margin

Ullern wins by 2+

40%

Skeid II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ullern 1+ goals

95%

Ullern 2+ goals

79%

Ullern 3+ goals

56%

Skeid II 1+ goals

85%

Skeid II 2+ goals

57%

Skeid II 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Ullern (draw refunded)

71%

Skeid II (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ullern at home — creates 2.38, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Skeid II away — creates 1.85, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ullern attack 2.38 + Skeid II defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 3.00

Skeid II attack 1.85 + Ullern defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ullern scores more

59%

level

17%

Skeid II scores more

24%

Ullern at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ullern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

J. Aarenes

10'

V. Holsaether

45+1'

B. Evensen

45+3'

B. Evensen

69'

S. Rorstad

72'

D. Lunde

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff