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Skeid II vs Ullern — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Skeid II
Skeid II
FT
2 – 3
Ullern
Ullern
8/8/20213. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 1Nordre Åsen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Skeid II29%
×Draw21%
Ullern49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skeid II
1.56
Ullern
2.06

Ullern creates 32% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 7 away

creates per match

Skeid II
2.55
Ullern
2.43

allows per match

Skeid II
1.70
Ullern
0.57

finishing

Skeid II+0.00on par
Ullern+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skeid II ↓

Ullern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Skeid II or draw
51%
Skeid II or Ullern
79%
Draw or Ullern
71%

Winning margin

Skeid II wins by 2+
14%
Ullern wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Skeid II 1+ goals
79%
Skeid II 2+ goals
46%
Skeid II 3+ goals
21%
Ullern 1+ goals
87%
Ullern 2+ goals
61%
Ullern 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Skeid II (draw refunded)
37%
Ullern (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skeid II at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

Ullern away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skeid II attack 2.55 + Ullern defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ullern attack 2.43 + Skeid II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Skeid II scores more
29%
level
21%
Ullern scores more
49%

Ullern at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ullern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Skeid II 2–3 Ullern

Ullern beat Skeid II 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on August 8, 2021.

The match was played at Nordre Åsen kunstgress in Oslo.