Ullern 4–1 Mjøndalen II: Result & Stats

Ullern

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Mjøndalen II

6/24/2024

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 12Ullern kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ullern68%

×Draw16%

Mjøndalen II16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UllernExpected goals in this matchMjøndalen II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.96

1.43

Ullern

2.96

Mjøndalen II

1.43

Ullern creates 107% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.38

creates per match

0.85

2.00

allows per match

3.54

creates per match

Ullern

2.38

Mjøndalen II

0.85

allows per match

Ullern

2.00

Mjøndalen II

3.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ullern+0.00on par

Mjøndalen II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ullern ↓

Mjøndalen II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Ullern or draw

84%

Ullern or Mjøndalen II

84%

Draw or Mjøndalen II

32%

Winning margin

Ullern wins by 2+

48%

Mjøndalen II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ullern 1+ goals

95%

Ullern 2+ goals

79%

Ullern 3+ goals

55%

Mjøndalen II 1+ goals

76%

Mjøndalen II 2+ goals

42%

Mjøndalen II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ullern (draw refunded)

81%

Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ullern at home — creates 2.38, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Mjøndalen II away — creates 0.85, concedes 3.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ullern attack 2.38 + Mjøndalen II defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 2.96

Mjøndalen II attack 0.85 + Ullern defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Ullern scores more

68%

level

16%

Mjøndalen II scores more

16%

Ullern at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ullern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff