Mjøndalen II 3–1 Ullern: Result & Stats

Mjøndalen II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Ullern

10/8/2024

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 24Consto Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mjøndalen II39%

×Draw22%

Ullern39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mjøndalen IIExpected goals in this matchUllern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.89

Mjøndalen II

1.88

Ullern

1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.38

creates per match

1.23

2.54

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Mjøndalen II

1.38

Ullern

1.23

allows per match

Mjøndalen II

2.54

Ullern

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mjøndalen II+0.00on par

Ullern+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjøndalen II ↓

Ullern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Mjøndalen II or draw

61%

Mjøndalen II or Ullern

78%

Draw or Ullern

61%

Winning margin

Mjøndalen II wins by 2+

21%

Ullern wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Mjøndalen II 1+ goals

85%

Mjøndalen II 2+ goals

56%

Mjøndalen II 3+ goals

29%

Ullern 1+ goals

85%

Ullern 2+ goals

56%

Ullern 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)

50%

Ullern (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjøndalen II at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

Ullern away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjøndalen II attack 1.38 + Ullern defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.88

Ullern attack 1.23 + Mjøndalen II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mjøndalen II scores more

39%

level

22%

Ullern scores more

39%

Mjøndalen II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mjøndalen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff