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Ullern vs KFUM II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Ullern
Ullern
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
KFUM II
KFUM II
A. Nouri 69'
P. Degnes 40'
A. Aksnes 23'
D. Schneider 3'
8/11/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 15Ullern kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ullern50%
×Draw19%
KFUM II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ullern
2.66
KFUM II
2.13

Ullern creates 25% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ullern
2.68
KFUM II
1.95

allows per match

Ullern
2.32
KFUM II
2.63

finishing

Ullern+0.00on par
KFUM II+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ullern ↓

KFUM II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Ullern or draw
68%
Ullern or KFUM II
81%
Draw or KFUM II
50%

Winning margin

Ullern wins by 2+
31%
KFUM II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ullern 1+ goals
93%
Ullern 2+ goals
74%
Ullern 3+ goals
49%
KFUM II 1+ goals
88%
KFUM II 2+ goals
63%
KFUM II 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Ullern (draw refunded)
61%
KFUM II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ullern at home — creates 2.68, concedes 2.32 · 19 matches

KFUM II away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ullern attack 2.68 + KFUM II defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.66

KFUM II attack 1.95 + Ullern defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ullern scores more
50%
level
19%
KFUM II scores more
32%

Ullern at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ullern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
D. Schneider
23'
A. Aksnes
40'
P. Degnes
69'
A. Nouri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Ullern 1–3 KFUM II

KFUM II beat Ullern 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on August 11, 2025.

Goals: D. Schneider (3'), A. Aksnes (23'), P. Degnes (40'), A. Nouri (69').

The match was played at Ullern kunstgress in Oslo.