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Ullern vs KFUM II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Ullern
Ullern
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
KFUM II
KFUM II
V. Holsaether 53'
B. Evensen 44'
A. Mustafa 81'
M. Gavey 13'
4/22/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 3Ullern kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ullern49%
×Draw20%
KFUM II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ullern
2.42
KFUM II
1.93

Ullern creates 25% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ullern
2.38
KFUM II
1.85

allows per match

Ullern
2.00
KFUM II
2.46

finishing

Ullern+0.00on par
KFUM II+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ullern ↓

KFUM II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Ullern or draw
69%
Ullern or KFUM II
80%
Draw or KFUM II
51%

Winning margin

Ullern wins by 2+
30%
KFUM II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ullern 1+ goals
91%
Ullern 2+ goals
69%
Ullern 3+ goals
43%
KFUM II 1+ goals
85%
KFUM II 2+ goals
57%
KFUM II 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Ullern (draw refunded)
61%
KFUM II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ullern at home — creates 2.38, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

KFUM II away — creates 1.85, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ullern attack 2.38 + KFUM II defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.42

KFUM II attack 1.85 + Ullern defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ullern scores more
49%
level
20%
KFUM II scores more
31%

Ullern at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ullern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
M. Gavey
44'
B. Evensen
53'
V. Holsaether
81'
A. Mustafa
90'
K. Marhaug
90'
K. Marhaug

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ullern vs KFUM II

Ullern and KFUM II drew 2-2 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on April 22, 2024.

Goals: M. Gavey (13'), B. Evensen (44'), V. Holsaether (53'), A. Mustafa (81').

The match was played at Ullern kunstgress in Oslo.