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Ullern vs Frigg — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Ullern
Ullern
FT
0 – 8
HT: 0 – 3
Frigg
Frigg
U. Ferrer 84', 76', 56', 32', 23'
S. Barane 74', 25'
E. Sawaneh 63'
9/28/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 23Ullern kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ullern34%
×Draw19%
Frigg47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ullern
2.12
Frigg
2.50

Frigg creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ullern
2.38
Frigg
3.00

allows per match

Ullern
2.00
Frigg
1.85

finishing

Ullern+0.00on par
Frigg+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ullern ↓

Frigg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Ullern or draw
53%
Ullern or Frigg
81%
Draw or Frigg
66%

Winning margin

Ullern wins by 2+
18%
Frigg wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Ullern 1+ goals
88%
Ullern 2+ goals
62%
Ullern 3+ goals
35%
Frigg 1+ goals
92%
Frigg 2+ goals
71%
Frigg 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Ullern (draw refunded)
42%
Frigg (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ullern at home — creates 2.38, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Frigg away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ullern attack 2.38 + Frigg defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.12

Frigg attack 3.00 + Ullern defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ullern scores more
34%
level
19%
Frigg scores more
47%

Frigg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Frigg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
U. Ferrer
25'
S. Barane
32'
U. Ferrer
56'
U. Ferrer
63'
E. Sawaneh
74'
S. Barane
76'
U. Ferrer
84'
U. Ferrer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Ullern 0–8 Frigg

Frigg beat Ullern 8-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on September 28, 2024.

Goals: U. Ferrer (23', 32', 56', 76', 84'), S. Barane (25', 74'), E. Sawaneh (63').

The match was played at Ullern kunstgress in Oslo.