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Frigg vs Ullern — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Frigg
Frigg
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ullern
Ullern
J. Holmedahl 47'
E. Sawaneh 11'
5/11/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 6Tørteberg kunstgress 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Frigg72%
×Draw15%
Ullern13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frigg
3.12
Ullern
1.30

Frigg creates 140% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Frigg
3.85
Ullern
1.23

allows per match

Frigg
1.38
Ullern
2.38

finishing

Frigg+0.00on par
Ullern+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frigg ↓

Ullern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Frigg or draw
87%
Frigg or Ullern
85%
Draw or Ullern
28%

Winning margin

Frigg wins by 2+
53%
Ullern wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Frigg 1+ goals
95%
Frigg 2+ goals
81%
Frigg 3+ goals
59%
Ullern 1+ goals
73%
Ullern 2+ goals
37%
Ullern 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Frigg (draw refunded)
85%
Ullern (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frigg at home — creates 3.85, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Ullern away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frigg attack 3.85 + Ullern defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 3.12

Ullern attack 1.23 + Frigg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Frigg scores more
72%
level
15%
Ullern scores more
13%

Frigg at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Frigg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
E. Sawaneh
47'
J. Holmedahl

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frigg vs Ullern

Frigg beat Ullern 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on May 11, 2024.

Goals: E. Sawaneh (11'), J. Holmedahl (47').

The match was played at Tørteberg kunstgress 2 in Oslo.