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Ullern vs Bærum — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Ullern
Ullern
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bærum
Bærum
C. H. Aagesen 57'
L. Bransdal 29'
9/7/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 20Ullern kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ullern35%
×Draw21%
Bærum44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ullern
1.88
Bærum
2.12

Bærum creates 13% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ullern
2.38
Bærum
2.23

allows per match

Ullern
2.00
Bærum
1.38

finishing

Ullern+0.00on par
Bærum+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ullern ↓

Bærum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Ullern or draw
56%
Ullern or Bærum
79%
Draw or Bærum
65%

Winning margin

Ullern wins by 2+
18%
Bærum wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Ullern 1+ goals
85%
Ullern 2+ goals
56%
Ullern 3+ goals
29%
Bærum 1+ goals
88%
Bærum 2+ goals
62%
Bærum 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Ullern (draw refunded)
44%
Bærum (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ullern at home — creates 2.38, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Bærum away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ullern attack 2.38 + Bærum defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.88

Bærum attack 2.23 + Ullern defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ullern scores more
35%
level
21%
Bærum scores more
44%

Bærum at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bærum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
L. Bransdal
57'
C. H. Aagesen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Ullern 1–1 Bærum

Ullern and Bærum drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on September 7, 2024.

Goals: L. Bransdal (29'), C. H. Aagesen (57').

The match was played at Ullern kunstgress in Oslo.