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Bærum vs Ullern — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Bærum
Bærum
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Ullern
Ullern
L. Bransdal 83'
K. Coric 32'
M. Augdal 21', 15'
A. Nouri 39'
B. Evensen 29'
10/26/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 26AJ Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bærum59%
×Draw18%
Ullern23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bærum
2.74
Ullern
1.71

Bærum creates 60% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Bærum
3.32
Ullern
1.74

allows per match

Bærum
1.68
Ullern
2.16

finishing

Bærum+0.00on par
Ullern+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bærum ↓

Ullern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Bærum or draw
77%
Bærum or Ullern
82%
Draw or Ullern
41%

Winning margin

Bærum wins by 2+
39%
Ullern wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bærum 1+ goals
93%
Bærum 2+ goals
75%
Bærum 3+ goals
51%
Ullern 1+ goals
82%
Ullern 2+ goals
51%
Ullern 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Bærum (draw refunded)
72%
Ullern (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bærum at home — creates 3.32, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

Ullern away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bærum attack 3.32 + Ullern defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.74

Ullern attack 1.74 + Bærum defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bærum scores more
59%
level
18%
Ullern scores more
23%

Bærum at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bærum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
M. Augdal
21'
M. Augdal
29'
B. Evensen
32'
K. Coric
39'
A. Nouri
83'
L. Bransdal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Bærum 4–2 Ullern

Bærum beat Ullern 4-2 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on October 26, 2025.

Goals: M. Augdal (15', 21'), B. Evensen (29'), K. Coric (32'), A. Nouri (39'), L. Bransdal (83').

The match was played at AJ Arena in Sandvika.