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Ullern vs Åssiden IF — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Ullern
Ullern
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Åssiden IF
Åssiden IF
8/24/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 18Ullern kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ullern56%
×Draw19%
Åssiden IF25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ullern
2.62
Åssiden IF
1.73

Ullern creates 51% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Ullern
2.38
Åssiden IF
1.46

allows per match

Ullern
2.00
Åssiden IF
2.85

finishing

Ullern+0.00on par
Åssiden IF+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ullern ↓

Åssiden IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Ullern or draw
75%
Ullern or Åssiden IF
81%
Draw or Åssiden IF
44%

Winning margin

Ullern wins by 2+
36%
Åssiden IF wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ullern 1+ goals
93%
Ullern 2+ goals
73%
Ullern 3+ goals
48%
Åssiden IF 1+ goals
82%
Åssiden IF 2+ goals
52%
Åssiden IF 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Ullern (draw refunded)
69%
Åssiden IF (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ullern at home — creates 2.38, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Åssiden IF away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ullern attack 2.38 + Åssiden IF defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.62

Åssiden IF attack 1.46 + Ullern defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ullern scores more
56%
level
19%
Åssiden IF scores more
25%

Ullern at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ullern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Ullern 2–2 Åssiden IF

Ullern and Åssiden IF drew 2-2 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Ullern kunstgress in Oslo.