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Åssiden IF vs Ullern — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Åssiden IF
Åssiden IF
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ullern
Ullern
6/28/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 13Åssiden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Åssiden IF45%
×Draw21%
Ullern34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åssiden IF
2.17
Ullern
1.89

Åssiden IF creates 15% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Åssiden IF
1.96
Ullern
1.23

allows per match

Åssiden IF
2.54
Ullern
2.38

finishing

Åssiden IF+0.00on par
Ullern+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åssiden IF ↓

Ullern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Åssiden IF or draw
66%
Åssiden IF or Ullern
79%
Draw or Ullern
55%

Winning margin

Åssiden IF wins by 2+
26%
Ullern wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Åssiden IF 1+ goals
89%
Åssiden IF 2+ goals
64%
Åssiden IF 3+ goals
36%
Ullern 1+ goals
85%
Ullern 2+ goals
56%
Ullern 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Åssiden IF (draw refunded)
57%
Ullern (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åssiden IF at home — creates 1.96, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

Ullern away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åssiden IF attack 1.96 + Ullern defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.17

Ullern attack 1.23 + Åssiden IF defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Åssiden IF scores more
45%
level
21%
Ullern scores more
34%

Åssiden IF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Åssiden IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Åssiden IF 2–1 Ullern

Åssiden IF beat Ullern 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on June 28, 2024.

The match was played at Åssiden Stadion in Drammen.