Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ullern vs Alta II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2021

Ullern
Ullern
FT
5 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Alta II
Alta II
E. Lindahn 82'
B. Evensen 58', 54'
F. Wollum-Goulehi 51'
A. Nouri 26'
G. Akesson 78', 65'
T. E. Ingilae 10'
9/20/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 21Ullern kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ullern64%
×Draw16%
Alta II20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ullern
3.30
Alta II
1.89

Ullern creates 75% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ullern
2.68
Alta II
1.46

allows per match

Ullern
2.32
Alta II
3.92

finishing

Ullern+0.00on par
Alta II+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ullern ↓

Alta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Ullern or draw
80%
Ullern or Alta II
84%
Draw or Alta II
36%

Winning margin

Ullern wins by 2+
45%
Alta II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ullern 1+ goals
96%
Ullern 2+ goals
83%
Ullern 3+ goals
62%
Alta II 1+ goals
85%
Alta II 2+ goals
56%
Alta II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Ullern (draw refunded)
76%
Alta II (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ullern at home — creates 2.68, concedes 2.32 · 19 matches

Alta II away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ullern attack 2.68 + Alta II defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 3.30

Alta II attack 1.46 + Ullern defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Ullern scores more
64%
level
16%
Alta II scores more
20%

Ullern at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ullern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
T. E. Ingilae
26'
A. Nouri
51'
F. Wollum-Goulehi
54'
B. Evensen
58'
B. Evensen
65'
G. Akesson
78'
G. Akesson
82'
E. Lindahn

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Ullern 5–3 Alta II

Ullern beat Alta II 5-3 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on September 20, 2025.

Goals: T. E. Ingilae (10'), A. Nouri (26'), F. Wollum-Goulehi (51'), B. Evensen (54', 58'), G. Akesson (65', 78'), E. Lindahn (82').

The match was played at Ullern kunstgress in Oslo.