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Alta II vs Ullern — 3. Division - Girone 1 2021

Alta II
Alta II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Ullern
Ullern
M. Solbakken 5'
N. Knezevic 14', 13' (pen)
6/1/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 8SmartDok Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Alta II33%
×Draw19%
Ullern48%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alta II
2.04
Ullern
2.48

Ullern creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Alta II
1.92
Ullern
1.74

allows per match

Alta II
3.23
Ullern
2.16

finishing

Alta II+0.00on par
Ullern+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alta II ↓

Ullern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Alta II or draw
52%
Alta II or Ullern
81%
Draw or Ullern
67%

Winning margin

Alta II wins by 2+
17%
Ullern wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Alta II 1+ goals
87%
Alta II 2+ goals
60%
Alta II 3+ goals
33%
Ullern 1+ goals
92%
Ullern 2+ goals
70%
Ullern 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Alta II (draw refunded)
40%
Ullern (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alta II at home — creates 1.92, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

Ullern away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alta II attack 1.92 + Ullern defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.04

Ullern attack 1.74 + Alta II defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alta II scores more
33%
level
19%
Ullern scores more
48%

Ullern at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ullern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
M. Solbakken
13'
N. KnezevicPenalty
14'
N. Knezevic
65'
A. Vik

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Alta II 1–2 Ullern

Ullern beat Alta II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on June 1, 2025.

Goals: M. Solbakken (5'), N. Knezevic (13' pen, 14').

The match was played at SmartDok Arena in Alta.