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Ullern II vs Grorud II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Ullern II
Ullern II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Grorud II
Grorud II
9/9/20233. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 19Ullern kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ullern II41%
×Draw21%
Grorud II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ullern II
2.07
Grorud II
2.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Ullern II
1.69
Grorud II
1.88

allows per match

Ullern II
2.15
Grorud II
2.45

finishing

Ullern II+0.00on par
Grorud II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ullern II ↓

Grorud II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Ullern II or draw
61%
Ullern II or Grorud II
79%
Draw or Grorud II
59%

Winning margin

Ullern II wins by 2+
23%
Grorud II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ullern II 1+ goals
87%
Ullern II 2+ goals
61%
Ullern II 3+ goals
34%
Grorud II 1+ goals
87%
Grorud II 2+ goals
59%
Grorud II 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Ullern II (draw refunded)
51%
Grorud II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ullern II at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Grorud II away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.45 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ullern II attack 1.69 + Grorud II defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.07

Grorud II attack 1.88 + Ullern II defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ullern II scores more
41%
level
21%
Grorud II scores more
39%

Ullern II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ullern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Ullern II 0–3 Grorud II

Grorud II beat Ullern II 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Ullern kunstgress in Oslo.