Grorud II 1–0 Ullern II: Result & Stats

Grorud II

FT

1 – 0

Ullern II

6/5/2023

3. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 8Grorud stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Grorud II63%

×Draw17%

Ullern II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grorud IIExpected goals in this matchUllern II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.75

1.52

Grorud II

2.75

Ullern II

1.52

Grorud II creates 81% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 13 away

1.50

creates per match

1.08

1.97

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Grorud II

1.50

Ullern II

1.08

allows per match

Grorud II

1.97

Ullern II

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grorud II+0.00on par

Ullern II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grorud II ↓

Ullern II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Grorud II or draw

80%

Grorud II or Ullern II

83%

Draw or Ullern II

37%

Winning margin

Grorud II wins by 2+

42%

Ullern II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Grorud II 1+ goals

93%

Grorud II 2+ goals

75%

Grorud II 3+ goals

51%

Ullern II 1+ goals

78%

Ullern II 2+ goals

45%

Ullern II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Grorud II (draw refunded)

76%

Ullern II (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grorud II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.97 · 32 matches

Ullern II away — creates 1.08, concedes 4.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grorud II attack 1.50 + Ullern II defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Ullern II attack 1.08 + Grorud II defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Grorud II scores more

63%

level

17%

Ullern II scores more

20%

Grorud II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Grorud II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff