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Ullern II vs Gjelleråsen — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Ullern II
Ullern II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gjelleråsen
Gjelleråsen
B. Eskilsson 84'
6/27/20233. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 11Ullern kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ullern II31%
×Draw21%
Gjelleråsen48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ullern II
1.72
Gjelleråsen
2.17

Gjelleråsen creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

creates per match

Ullern II
1.69
Gjelleråsen
2.20

allows per match

Ullern II
2.15
Gjelleråsen
1.75

finishing

Ullern II+0.00on par
Gjelleråsen+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ullern II ↓

Gjelleråsen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Ullern II or draw
52%
Ullern II or Gjelleråsen
79%
Draw or Gjelleråsen
69%

Winning margin

Ullern II wins by 2+
15%
Gjelleråsen wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Ullern II 1+ goals
82%
Ullern II 2+ goals
51%
Ullern II 3+ goals
25%
Gjelleråsen 1+ goals
89%
Gjelleråsen 2+ goals
64%
Gjelleråsen 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Ullern II (draw refunded)
39%
Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ullern II at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Gjelleråsen away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ullern II attack 1.69 + Gjelleråsen defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.72

Gjelleråsen attack 2.20 + Ullern II defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ullern II scores more
31%
level
21%
Gjelleråsen scores more
48%

Gjelleråsen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gjelleråsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

84'
B. Eskilsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ullern II vs Gjelleråsen

Gjelleråsen beat Ullern II 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on June 27, 2023.

Goals: B. Eskilsson (84').

The match was played at Ullern kunstgress in Oslo.