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Gjelleråsen vs Ullern II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Gjelleråsen
Gjelleråsen
FT
6 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Ullern II
Ullern II
G. Meyer 89', 67'
S. Skoglund 84'
K. Otman 76'
W. Khris 75'
M. Nygard 25'
A. Aleksanjan 36'
J. C. Broch 32'
8/29/20233. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 17Li kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gjelleråsen77%
×Draw13%
Ullern II10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gjelleråsen
3.31
Ullern II
1.17

Gjelleråsen creates 183% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Gjelleråsen
2.63
Ullern II
1.08

allows per match

Gjelleråsen
1.26
Ullern II
4.00

finishing

Gjelleråsen+0.00on par
Ullern II+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gjelleråsen ↓

Ullern II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Gjelleråsen or draw
90%
Gjelleråsen or Ullern II
87%
Draw or Ullern II
23%

Winning margin

Gjelleråsen wins by 2+
59%
Ullern II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Gjelleråsen 1+ goals
96%
Gjelleråsen 2+ goals
83%
Gjelleråsen 3+ goals
62%
Ullern II 1+ goals
69%
Ullern II 2+ goals
33%
Ullern II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)
88%
Ullern II (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gjelleråsen at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Ullern II away — creates 1.08, concedes 4.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gjelleråsen attack 2.63 + Ullern II defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.31

Ullern II attack 1.08 + Gjelleråsen defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Gjelleråsen scores more
77%
level
13%
Ullern II scores more
10%

Gjelleråsen at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Gjelleråsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
M. Nygard
32'
J. C. Broch
36'
A. Aleksanjan
67'
G. Meyer
75'
W. Khris
76'
K. Otman
84'
S. Skoglund
89'
G. Meyer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gjelleråsen vs Ullern II

Gjelleråsen beat Ullern II 6-2 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on August 29, 2023.

Goals: M. Nygard (25'), J. C. Broch (32'), A. Aleksanjan (36'), G. Meyer (67', 89'), W. Khris (75'), K. Otman (76'), S. Skoglund (84').

The match was played at Li kunstgress in Hagan.