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Ull/Kisa vs Follo — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ull/Kisa
Ull/Kisa
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Follo
Follo
3/20/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ull/Kisa55%
×Draw22%
Follo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ull/Kisa
1.93
Follo
1.17

Ull/Kisa creates 65% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Ull/Kisa
1.64
Follo
1.33

allows per match

Ull/Kisa
1.00
Follo
2.22

finishing

Ull/Kisa+0.00on par
Follo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ull/Kisa ↓

Follo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ull/Kisa or draw
77%
Ull/Kisa or Follo
78%
Draw or Follo
45%

Winning margin

Ull/Kisa wins by 2+
32%
Follo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ull/Kisa 1+ goals
85%
Ull/Kisa 2+ goals
57%
Ull/Kisa 3+ goals
30%
Follo 1+ goals
69%
Follo 2+ goals
33%
Follo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ull/Kisa (draw refunded)
71%
Follo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ull/Kisa at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Follo away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ull/Kisa attack 1.64 + Follo defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.93

Follo attack 1.33 + Ull/Kisa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ull/Kisa scores more
55%
level
22%
Follo scores more
23%

Ull/Kisa at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ull/Kisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Ull/Kisa 1–3 Follo

Follo beat Ull/Kisa 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on March 20, 2026.