Follo 1–4 Ull/Kisa: Result & Stats

Follo

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Ull/Kisa

M. Ottesen 16'

F. F. Da Silva 65'

M. Bergum 58'

M. Flores 57'

J. Skille 1'

5/31/2025

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Langhus kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Follo35%

×Draw23%

Ull/Kisa42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FolloExpected goals in this matchUll/Kisa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.78

Follo

1.60

Ull/Kisa

1.78

Ull/Kisa creates 11% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 58 away

1.61

creates per match

1.83

1.73

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Follo

1.61

Ull/Kisa

1.83

allows per match

Follo

1.73

Ull/Kisa

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Follo+0.00on par

Ull/Kisa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Follo ↓

Ull/Kisa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Follo or draw

58%

Follo or Ull/Kisa

77%

Draw or Ull/Kisa

65%

Winning margin

Follo wins by 2+

17%

Ull/Kisa wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Follo 1+ goals

80%

Follo 2+ goals

47%

Follo 3+ goals

22%

Ull/Kisa 1+ goals

83%

Ull/Kisa 2+ goals

53%

Ull/Kisa 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Follo (draw refunded)

45%

Ull/Kisa (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Follo at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

Ull/Kisa away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.60 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Follo attack 1.61 + Ull/Kisa defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Ull/Kisa attack 1.83 + Follo defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Follo scores more

35%

level

23%

Ull/Kisa scores more

42%

Ull/Kisa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ull/Kisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

16'

17'

28'

45'

46'

57'

58'

60'

65'

69'

O. Rishaug← R. Gonella

69'

G. Helling← M. Larsen

69'

J. Jorde← M. Ottesen

69'

D. Ghebar← N. Skoglund

81'

N. Schmidt-Lovlund← E. Togersen

85'

E. Naustdal← M. Bergum

85'

K. Skarpsno← J. Skille

88'

S. Ostadi← M. Flores

90'

E. Bjornsengen← H. Paulsrud

Follo

Ull/Kisa

1

Twizere

3

▼

Vestby

4

Bjorkkjae

5

Gjelsvik

27

▼

Paulsrud

7

⚽

▼

Bergum

8

Naustdal

21

Kjenstebe

9

⚽

▼

Skille

10

⚽

▼

Flores

11

⚽

1

2

4

3

5

6

18

▼

Gonella

20

▼

Larsen

10

⚽

▼

Ottesen

11

▼

Skoglund

90

▼

Togersen

Manager: C. Jacobsen

69'▲O. Rishaug←▼R. Gonella

69'▲G. Helling←▼M. Larsen

69'▲J. Jorde←▼M. Ottesen

69'▲D. Ghebar←▼N. Skoglund

81'▲N. Schmidt-Lovlund←▼E. Togersen

Follo substitutes

13Ostbye16Ozyilmaz17Rishaug21Mulaj23Elshaug26Helling27Jorde28Schmidt-Lovlund30Ghebar

Manager: K. Wehrman

46'▲P. Saebo←▼E. Vestby

85'▲E. Naustdal←▼M. Bergum

85'▲K. Skarpsno←▼J. Skille

88'▲S. Ostadi←▼M. Flores

90'▲E. Bjornsengen←▼H. Paulsrud

Ull/Kisa substitutes

12Christensen6Naustdal14Bjornsengen18Ostadi19Skarpsno20Ophaug22Aleksanjan23Saebo24Furaha

Match Recap: Follo vs Ull/Kisa

Ull/Kisa beat Follo 4-1 in 2. Division - Group 2 on May 31, 2025.

Goals: J. Skille (1'), M. Ottesen (16'), M. Flores (57'), M. Bergum (58'), F. F. Da Silva (65').

The match was played at Langhus kunstgress in Langhus.

Follo vs Ull/Kisa — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Follo vs Ull/Kisa